Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Iceland
  • Thailand
  • Korea, South

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,085$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,068.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,068.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.61 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(86.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $589$ on 2020-05-01

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,705$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,883.5}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,883.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,754$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,753.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,753.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,051$ on 2020-05-01

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $207,428$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,245.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(204,245.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,236$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,007.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,007.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,943$ on 2020-05-01

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,103,461$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(6.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,155,476.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,155,476.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64,943$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,303.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(69,303.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $874,503$ on 2020-05-01

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $178,685$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(7.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,891.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(189,891.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,583$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,637.7}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,637.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $150,210$ on 2020-05-01

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,520$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(950 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,086.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,086.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,653$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,019.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,019.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,862$ on 2020-05-01

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $164,077$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,445.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(159,445.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,736$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(456 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,182.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,182.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,441$ on 2020-05-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 91%
Thailand recovered 87%
Korea, South recovered 81%
Australia recovered 81%
Austria recovered 80%
New Zealand recovered 78%
Malta recovered 77%
Burkina Faso recovered 73%
Switzerland recovered 72%
Taiwan* recovered 68%
Iran recovered 62%
Germany recovered 58%
Niger recovered 58%
Andorra recovered 54%
Croatia recovered 53%
Djibouti recovered 49%
Denmark recovered 45%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 41%
North Macedonia recovered 38%
Uzbekistan recovered 36%
Costa Rica recovered 35%
Malaysia recovered 32%
Israel recovered 31%
Spain recovered 24%
Czechia recovered 24%
Slovakia recovered 20%
Turkey recovered 19%
Cuba recovered 11%
Italy recovered 7%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,959$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,240.6}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,240.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,959.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,959.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $749$ on 2020-05-01

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.91 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-01

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,960$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(748 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,876.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 18.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,876.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.5}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 10.0)}}\) (asimptote \(53.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187$ on 2020-05-01

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,780$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,262.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,262.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $250$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(47.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(257.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,407$ on 2020-05-01